Overview
Every figure here is computed from the assumptions on the next screen. Change one and the whole model moves.
What this is
The headline number and the four figures behind it. Every other screen is this one taken apart.
How to read it
Start with value per share, then read the bridge below it left to right — that is how the pipeline value becomes an equity value. The program bars show where the value actually sits, which is usually far more concentrated than people expect.
What to do with it
If one program carries most of the value, that is the program the meeting is about. Take the bridge and the bar chart to a board; leave the rest here.
Value per fully diluted share
$5.30
50m shares · $265m equity value
Pipeline rNPV, adjusted
$163m
$270m gross, less $107m of portfolio haircuts
Peak portfolio revenue
$1.72bn
Consolidated peak, not the sum of individual peaks
Implied blended probability
19.7%
$1.37bn unrisked. The gap is the price of clinical risk
Bridge to equity value
$mTwo haircuts, each argued separately. Overlap removes patients counted in more than one indication; correlated failure reflects that one molecule across several indications is not several independent draws.
Risk-adjusted value by program
$mA negative bar means the remaining development spend is worth more than the risk-adjusted cash flows it buys, at this probability.
Portfolio revenue, 2027 to 2046
Net revenue, $m, stacked by programPTSDAnxiety (GAD)Social anxiety (autism)Eating disordersDepression (TRD)Substance use disorders
Launches are staggered, so the consolidated peak of $1.72bn is lower than the sum of the individual peaks. Each curve falls away after loss of exclusivity to its stated residual.
Program summary
| Program | Stage | Probability | Launch | Peak sales | Peak year | Peak patients | rNPV | Unrisked NPV | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTSD | NDA resubmitted | 30.0% | 2028 | $345m | 2034 | 17,500 | $113m | $377m | 41.9% |
| Anxiety (GAD) | Phase 2 | 15.0% | 2030 | $505m | 2036 | 32,000 | $56m | $376m | 20.9% |
| Social anxiety (autism) | Phase 1 | 5.0% | 2033 | $119m | 2039 | 8,343 | -$4m | -$76m | -1.4% |
| Eating disorders | Phase 2 | 8.0% | 2032 | $248m | 2038 | 14,000 | $4m | $46m | 1.4% |
| Depression (TRD) | Phase 2 | 15.0% | 2030 | $798m | 2036 | 45,000 | $102m | $681m | 37.9% |
| Substance use disorders | Phase 1 | 5.0% | 2034 | $221m | 2040 | 14,000 | -$2m | -$33m | -0.6% |
| Pipeline | 19.7% | $1,724m | 130,843 | $270m | $1,369m | 100.0% |