Live model
The valuation your board actually argues about
The model lab is an interactive sum-of-the-parts valuation of an illustrative five-asset biotech pipeline. At a 10% discount rate it solves to $4.08B risk-adjusted and $5.54B unadjusted — the $1.46B gap is the price of development risk.
Four views on one model: the sum-of-the-parts valuation, a ten-year P&L, where the remaining development money goes, and what actually moves the number. Change the scenario or the discount rate and every view re-solves together. Illustrative data only; no client information is used.
Adjusted NPV
$4.08B
risk-weighted by PoS
Unadjusted
$5.54B
assumes technical success
Priced as risk
$1.46B
the cost of development risk
Implied share price
$9.34
450M shares
| Code | Indication | Status | Launch | Peak sales | PoS | Value at risk | Adjusted NPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRA-045 | Major Depressive DisorderNeuropsychiatry | Filed | 2027 | $1,460M | 80% | $1.88B | |
| LRA-201 | Post-Traumatic Stress DisorderNeuropsychiatry | Phase 3 | 2028 | $1,120M | 68% | $0.98B | |
| LRA-114 | Generalized Anxiety DisorderNeuroscience | Phase 3 | 2029 | $730M | 58% | $0.45B | |
| LRA-330 | Social Anxiety DisorderNeuroscience | Phase 2b | 2031 | $480M | 42% | $0.11B | |
| LRA-078 | Chronic InsomniaSleep Medicine | Marketed | 2026 | $390M | 93% | $0.66B | |
| Portfolio | $5.54B unadjusted | $4.08B | |||||
Illustrative pipeline and assumptions. Adjusted NPV risk-weights every cash flow by probability of success; unadjusted assumes technical success. No client information is used, and nothing here is investment advice.
Your pipeline, not this one
The same four views, built on your assumptions
Everything above is illustrative. On an engagement these four views are built from your programs, your cost base and your commercial forecast — and the plan reconciles to the valuation the same way, because a board will ask.
How it works
Five inputs decide the number
For each program the model takes peak annual sales, the probability of technical and regulatory success, the launch year, the development spend still to come, and a discount rate. Revenue follows a launch curve through loss of exclusivity; cash flows are discounted to today, development cost is subtracted, and the result is multiplied by probability of success.
Adding net cash and dividing by shares outstanding gives the implied share price — the number a board actually argues about.
Answers
About this model
What does the model lab calculate?
It discounts each program's projected free cash flow to today, subtracts remaining development spend, and multiplies by probability of success to give a risk-adjusted net present value. At a 10.0% discount rate the illustrative five-asset pipeline is worth $4.08B on a risk-adjusted basis and $5.54B unadjusted. The $1.46B difference is the price of development risk. Implied share price is $9.34 on 450M shares with $125M net cash.
Is this real client data?
No. The pipeline is illustrative and built for demonstration. No client information appears anywhere on this site.
Can I get these numbers as data?
Yes — https://longrangeadvisory.com/api/valuation returns the same model as JSON, and accepts a ?rate= parameter between 6 and 16.
What discount rate should I use?
Emerging biotechs commonly use 10% to 14%. The point of the slider is not to find one right number but to see whether the ranking of programs holds across the range.